We finally made it. After the longest season in NFL history and three rounds of playoff games, Super Bowl 56 is set to go. For the second straight year, the host of the game is also playing in it. The Rams will be attempting to follow the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the second team in history to win a Super Bowl on their home field. It wasn’t an easy path to the Super Bowl for either team. Both the Rams and the Bengals entered the postseason as Wildcard teams, and both dispatched of last year’s respective conference champions.
In just his third season in the NFL, Joe Burrow is leading what looks to be the league’s best young offensive group to the promised land. The Bengals have been the trendy underdog team this year, with players like rookie kicker Evan McPherson already cementing himself as a Bengals playoff legend. Cincinnati has perhaps the most underrated wide receiver group in the league led by rookie Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and sixth year slot receiver Tyler Boyd who finds himself as the veteran on the team. Running back Joe Mixon has been stellar and has finally shown flashes of the player he was projected to be out of Oklahoma.
The big question for the Bengals all season has been its offensive line. So far, it has handled three strong pass rushing units in Las Vegas, Tennessee, and Kansas City, but Aaron Donald and the Rams present a different level of difficulty. It’s something that has been well documented, but Joe Burrow is elite when teams blitz. The Rams have blitzed at the ninth highest rate this season, but like other teams, should rely more on four man coverage and having defenders drop back into the secondary. This is a game where the Rams will rely on Donald, Von Miller, and Leonard Floyd to hold down the fort up front. For the Rams, it represents Sean McVay’s second trip to the Super Bowl in four years. This rates as a much more complete team starting with quarterback Matthew Stafford. The Rams made the blockbuster trade to land Stafford in the offseason and the deal is already paying dividends. Los Angeles also signed wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr., who has resurrected his career with the Rams, and has provided much needed wide receiver depth behind Cooper Kupp with the absence of Robert Woods.
The running game has been revived with the return of Cam Akers, and Sony Michel will provide much needed playoff experience from his time with the Patriots. It’s not the offense that concerns me for the Rams. The defense, aside from Jalen Ramsay, might have some trouble containing whoever Ramsay isn’t covering. Tee Higgins is a legitimate threat down the middle of the field, and has a size advantage over a lot of defenders in the league. Stafford needs to clean up his game, after turnovers were a problem in the second half of the season. Part of this has been referred to as McVay’s offense growing stale, as similar patterns affected Jared Goff as well.
Super Bowl 56: The Pick
With all of that being said, I expect McVay to be aggressive in this game. He has a reputation of making low-risk plays in big games, something that he is surely aware of. Having Stafford instead of Goff could lead him to have more conviction in these plays, but given the defensive collapse against the Buccaneers, I’m sure McVay wants his offense to win the game and not have to rely on shutting down Joe Burrow. But at four points, I just can’t get there with the Rams. The Bengals continue to have the residue of a far weaker team from recent history. This team is not weak, and has few glaring holes. This should be a field goal game at the most. I am betting the +4.5 with the Cincinnati Bengals, in what could be a game that comes down to a field goal from either of the two very competent kickers.
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